MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
South Park: Trump x Satan baby is male?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-11

This market will resolve according to the sex of Donald Trump's and Satan's baby if or when the gender is revealed during South Park Season 27.

If the gender of Donald Trump's and Satan's baby is neither male nor female, not revealed during season...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.1k
Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5
> 99%
Under
< 1%
Over
Last updated: 2025-10-11

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 10 at 7:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Celtics and Raptors combine to score 222 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 222, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.5k
If Greenland holds an independence referendum in 2025, will it vote for independence?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-17

If https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-greenland-hold-an-independence?play=false resolves YES, resolves YES if the result is pro-independence, NO otherwise. Resolves N/A otherwise.

Last updated: 2025-03-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M965
Will AI-operated haircuts be bookable in at least two cities by the end of 2025?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-27

booking process should be as straightforward as booking a traditional haircut

Last updated: 2025-05-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M5.5k
Anthropic's Claude 4 announced today?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-05-22

This market will close when the anthropic livestream starts.

Last updated: 2025-05-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M11k
Was the Moscow concert hall attack a false flag?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-04

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that the attack on the Crocus concert hall was organised by the Putin regime / Russian State.

If there is no evidence supporting this hypothesis before January 1st 2031, then this market resolves as NO. If...

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M2.6k
Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-16

Before February 1st, 2029, will Donald Trump post or talk about an attack on a public intellectual (e.g. prominent academic, writer, podcaster, journalist) which leaves the public intellectual in serious or critical condition or dead, in an approving...

Last updated: 2025-05-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M9.3k
Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?
69%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Graham Allison and The Brookings Institute have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering Taiwan.

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 363
Which team will win the Pacific Division in the 2024-25 NHL regular season?
54%
Vegas Golden Knights
28%
Edmonton Oilers
14%
Los Angeles Kings
3%
Vancouver Canucks
2%
Another team
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 88
Forecasters: 20
Will Robin Johnston win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-11

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Seychelles on September 27, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.5k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 11?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final “Close” price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.7k
Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-15

Abstract:

“Rail Baltica” is a key railroad infrastructure project in the Baltic region (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and partly Poland) of the European Union that is set to integrate the Baltics into the European rail network (part of TEN-T European...

Last updated: 2025-05-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M5.2k
Will Apple reduce the price of the Apple Vision Pro before 2026?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-04

The current price of the base model Apple Vision Pro is $3499, will it be reduced on the official Apple US website before 2026?

See this market for prior to 2025:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-reduce-the-price-of-the)

Last updated: 2025-05-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M1.2k
Koby Stock
93%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 109
Volume: M32k
Zuckerberg divorce in 2025?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Zuckerberg and/or Priscilla Chan announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31,...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.6k
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win the 2025 NL MVP?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ronald Acuña Jr. is awarded the 2025 MLB National League Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Ronald Acuña Jr. is not announced as a finalist for the 2025 MLB NL MVP...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.8k
Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-21

the exact latin words, in any context, with any capitalization

resolves NO when he is removed

Last updated: 2025-04-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M693
Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-17

This market, but bronze instead of gold criteria:

Getting gold or silver would mean this market resolves YES, as an AI capable of getting above bronze could also get bronze.

(https://manifold..

Last updated: 2025-05-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 69
Volume: M10k
Will Pope Leo visit another country first?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-11

This market will resolve to the first sovereign country that Pope Leo XIV visits after becoming pope.

Italy will not be considered for this market.

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Pope Leo XIV physically entering the...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Statue of Liberty still standing by 2045?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-17

If the Statue of Liberty in New York is taken down or substantially damaged in the next 20 years, including decapitation of the statue or destruction from natural disasters, this question resolves NO. Minor wear and tear does not count.

Intentional...

Last updated: 2025-04-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M248
Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs in the 2025 MLB Postseason?
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-10-11

This market will resolve to the player who hits the most home runs during the 2025 MLB Postseason, currently scheduled between September 30 and November 1, 2025.

If two or more players are tied for the most home runs, this market will resolve to the...

Last updated: 2025-10-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $10

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus